BCR Weekly Outlook 11.26 - 12.2


Posted on: 2018-11-26 (Day) By BCR Weekly Outlook


Key Events for this week (26/11 – 30/11)

Time (GMT)

Country

Currency

Event

Previous

Forecast

 

Mon 26/11 09:00

EUR

German Business Climate by IFO

105.9

105.3

 
   

 The IFO Institute is to report on German Business Climate and the impact will be MEDIUM to the currency of Euro. The report includes business expectation, business climate and current assessment by IFO in Germany.

Mon 26/11 14:00

EUR

ECB President Draghi’s Speech

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--

 
   

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to testify about the economy and monetary policy to the European Parliament in Brussels. The impact and volatility will be HIGH to the currency of Euro. President's comments on monetary policy may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term.

Mon 26/11 18:30

GBP

BOE’s Governor Carney Speech

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--

 
 

 

The Governor is to speak at an event in London and the speech might give positive and negative impact to the Pound Sterling especially when he talks about the future of GBP upon current Brexit Negotiation that currently takes place.

Wed 28/11 13:30

USD

Revise Data on Third Quarter Growth

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--

 
   

The data include Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Good Trade Balance and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ). Gross Domestic Product Annualized is expected to remain unchanged as previous data; 3.5% while the consensus data (-$76.7B) on Goods Trade Balance will be slightly lower compared to the previous data (-$76.04B). In addition, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) is expected to remain unchanged (1.6%).

Wed 28/11 15:00

USD

New Home Sales

0.553M

0.575M

 
   

The number of New Home Sales released by the US Census Bureau is an important measure of housing market conditions. This data is HIGH Impact and if the data comes out as predicted or even better, it might give US Dollar a Hawkish move.  

Wed 28/11 17:00

USD

US Federal Chairman’s Jerome Powell Speech

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--

 
   

Federal Chairman Jerome Powell is about to speak at the Economic Club of New York and the impact is HIGH. Apparently, Powell is going to talk about Federal rate hikes and his statement will give a catalyst to US Index either Bearish or Hawkish.

Thu 29/11 13:30

USD

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY)

2.0%

2.0%

 
   

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. The data is expected to remain unchanged.

Thu 29/11 13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claim

224K

219K

 
   

The Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD. The data is expected to be slightly better compared to the previous.

Thu 29/11 19:00

USD

FOMC Minutes

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--

 
   

FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy and there are possibilities of rate hikes by the Federal and if it happens, it might affect the strength of US Dollar in long-term.

 

 

 

 

You May Always Concern U.S. Dollar and XAUUSD (GOLD)

 

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

 

Weekly OHLC              96.317             96.857             95.920             96.842

Weekly Gain/Loss       0.55%

Key Resistance            97.522             98.083

Key Support                 95.440             94.330

 

Last week, the bulls emboldened and formed an impressive Bullish Candle in Weekly Chart after bouncing from EMA200 and currently it remains to be above EMA200 and it indicates possible Bullish Continuation. It is supported by the upcoming fundamental news that will take place especially the meeting held in G20 Meeting between the President of United States of America, Donald Trump and the President of Republic of China, Xin Jinping. U.S. President Donald Trump is due to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires and market watchers are hoping that the discussions could lead to a ceasefire in the trade war between Washington and Beijing. Any bilateral agreement will be a massive catalyst for USD Index to climb further up. In technical view, the level of US Index at this moment is currently respecting the Channel and no breakout occurs last week. The key resistance will be 97.522 and 98.083. The failure of breaking these two key points, there will be a chance of trend reversal for US Index but as long as it remains above EMA200 and the key Support at 94.440 and 94.330, it is likely to move to the North to get fresh supplies from the Sellers at the said resistance points.

 

XAUUSD (Gold)

 

Weekly OHLC              1222.4             1229.9             1217.89           1224.16

Weekly Gain/Loss       0.14%

Key Resistance            1243.1             1265.9

Key Support                 1214.1             1182.0

 

As supported by the USD Index, there will be a chance for Gold to move even lower to its critical support 1214.1 and 1182.0. As it remains below EMA200 in Weekly chart and this week the precious metals traders will be focusing their attention on Thursday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, the Dollars response to the Fed policy outlook and Friday’s looming U.S.-China trade talks in G20 Meeting. Gold prices ended lower in Friday’s holiday shortened trading session, to end the week flat after pulling back from the two-week highs reached pre-Thanksgiving on Wednesday. Gold price is expected to move further south due to the strengthening of the US Dollar as the price is currently moving below the H4 Trendline while any upward breakouts will definitely change the scenario.

 

 

More Trading Opportunities

 

EURUSD

 

Weekly OHLC              1.1413             1.1471             1.1327             1.1337

Weekly Gain/Loss       -0.66%

Key Resistance            1.1430             1.1500

Key Support                 1.1300             1.1110

 

The Euro has made an impressive rally to recover after breaking 1.13 handle but found enough resistance just below 1.15 handle to form a negative candle and US Dollar is taking the lead to increase the pressure on the Euro. The Euro continues to struggle due to the Brexit and the issues between the EU and Italy will hurt the Euro even more. Ultimately, US Dollar is favored in the short term especially it has more interest rate coming from the United States, while the ECB is going to continue to be dealing with an economy that is softening and the problems in Italy. As it is supported fundamentally, EURUSD is likely to re-test again the critical 1.13 handle and it might reach towards 1.11 level underneath, which has been massive support in the past. EURUSD remains to be traded below EMA200 and it is likely to move further down this week as long as 1.15 handle holds.

 

GBPUSD

 

Weekly OHLC              1.2833             1.2927             1.2763             1.2812

Weekly Gain/Loss       -0.16%

Key Resistance            1.2920             1.3175

Key Support                 1.2700             1.2585

 

GBPUSD is relatively forming a neutral candle and the market looks a bit confused, it is due to the uncertainty of Brexit dealing. It is currently sitting on top of major support while the 1.27 handle underneath is an area to see this pair moves to the South. If the break down through the 1.27 level, it’s likely that the market unwinds rather drastically and dive to the 1.22 handle. In consideration of the formation of Descending Triangle in the Weekly chart and there will be a chance to push the Pound lower and at the same time the market is moving under the EMA200 in H4, Daily and Weekly chart which clearly indicates that trend reversal has a minimum possibility to occur. Beyond that, the Brexit situation which does not seem to be getting any better and it may dig the wounds for the Pound even deeper.

 

AUDUSD

 

Weekly OHLC              0.7317             0.7325             0.7202             0.7232

Weekly Gain/Loss       -1.2%

Key Resistance            0.7337             0.7384

Key Support                 0.7163             0.7020

 

AUDUSD has broken through the daily Channel and it is a strong sign for this pair to move further up. By taking into consideration of the current market price at this moment, it is likely to test the nearest support at 0.7163 to get fresh buyers before moving upward to the resistance levels at 0.7337 and 0.7384. The strength of Aussie decreased last week due to lower demand for risky assets and the drop in global risk appetite was primarily fueled by weaker US equity markets and fear of weakening global economy. At the same time, profit taking and position-squaring ahead of G20 meeting in Argentina also weighed on the Aussie and the investors are waiting for any bilateral agreement between U.S and China to ease the trade war. AUDUSD is traded above EMA200 in H4 Chart while waiting for a clear break of EMA200 in Daily Chart to ensure the next direction could be determined.