BCR Weekly Outlook 11.19 - 11.25


Posted on: 2018-11-19 (Day) By BCR Weekly Outlook


High Impact Economic Data for this week (19/11 – 25/11)

Time (GMT)

Country

Currency

Event

Previous

Forecast

 

Tue 20/11 00:30

AUD

RBA Meeting's Minutes

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 The Australian economy is performing well, and a little stronger than earlier expected. GDP growth is running above 3 per cent. The unemployment rate has declined noticeably, reaching 5 per cent in the month of September”, the RBA said in the November’s monetary policy statement.

Tue 20/11 10:00

GBP

Inflation Report Hearings

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The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. The economic outlook will significantly depend on the nature of EU withdrawal. MPC will adjust the monetary policy in response to Brexit.

Wed 21/11 13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

216K

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The U.S. Jobless Claims increased by 2K to 216K in last week from the prior week’s unrevised level of 214K while markets had expected a drop to 212K. However, the unemployment rate remains low and NFP beats the expectations in last month.

Thu 22/11 12:30

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

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In the last rate decision, The ECB said that they will continue to make net purchases under APP at the new monthly pace of €15 billion until the end of 12/2018. Then net purchases will end. The Government Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under APP for an extended period, after the net asset purchases.

 

 

You May Always Concern U.S. Dollar and XAUUSD (GOLD)

 

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

 

Weekly OHLC              96.81               97.52               96.25               96.30

Weekly Gain/Loss       -0.5%

Key Resistance            96.86               97.66

Key Support                 95.44               94.33

 

Last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) found its new resistance level at 97.66 on Monday, then breached 96.86 horizontal support level. A bearish candlestick is showing in the weekly chart. In the daily timeframe, MACD is losing its bullish momentum and RSI is testing the neutral axis, these indicating the potential reversal of the long order. The MA system is still showing its long order. Focus on 95.44 support level for further movement.

 

XAUUSD (Gold)

 

Weekly OHLC              1210.7             1225.1             1196.2             1222.4

Weekly Gain/Loss       1%

Key Resistance            1243.1             1265.9

Key Support                 1214.1             1182.0

 

The gold price bounced after testing the bottom trendline of the upward channel, following a huge growth over last week. A bullish candlestick is showing in the weekly chart. In the daily timeframe, MACD is losing its bearish momentum and RSI is remaining above the neutral axis, the MA system is extending its long order. The price is staying above 1214 key level, which shows the potential bull’s power. For now, focus on the upward channel and 1214 horizontal support level in the upcoming days.

 

 

More Trading Opportunities

 

EURUSD

 

Weekly OHLC              1.1323             1.1421             1.1215             1.1413

Weekly Gain/Loss       0.8%

Key Resistance            1.1430             1.1615

Key Support                 1.1300             1.1114

 

The Euro had a massive rebound after breached 1.130 key support level. A bullish candlestick is showing in the weekly chart. However, the price is still moving in the downward channel. In the daily time frame, MACD is losing its bearish momentum and RSI is remaining above the neutral axis, but the MA system reopened the gateway for the short order. The price is forming a lower-high pattern since September 24th. Focus on 1.1430 barrier within the week.

 

GBPUSD

 

Weekly OHLC              1.2937             1.3071             1.2723             1.2833

Weekly Gain/Loss       -0.8%

Key Resistance            1.2920             1.3175

Key Support                 1.2693             1.2585

 

The GBPUSD plunged to testing 1.2693 support level on last Thursday. A bearish candlestick is showing in the weekly chart. The sterling was the worst performing currency in the majors over last week. In the daily timeframe, MACD is regaining its bearish momentum and RSI dropped below the neutral axis. the 50-DMA and 100-DMA are narrowing to show the potential reversal of the long order. Focus on 1.2693 key support level, if the price breaks through this level, the pair will form a lower-low pattern to extend the current downward trend.

 

AUDUSD

 

Weekly OHLC              0.7226             0.7337             0.7164             0.7317

Weekly Gain/Loss       1.3%

Key Resistance            0.7500             0.7677

Key Support                 0.7163             0.7020

 

The Aussie bounced from 0.7163 horizontal support level on last Tuesday. A bullish candlestick is showing in the weekly chart. The price pushed up to a 10-week high over last week. The Aussie was the best performing currency against other majors. In the daily timeframe, MACD continues gaining bullish momentum and RSI is testing the overbought territory, the MA system is remaining in long order. The price confirmed its long order in the short run after broke through the bearish channel. Focus on 0.750 key resistance level for further movement.