ECB Interest Rate Decision (April 2019)


Posted on: 2019-04-09 (Day) By BCR Market Event


 

The European Central Bank held its key rate at 0% in March’s meeting. Meanwhile, they decided to launch a new series of TLTRO-III, starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2012. These new operations will help to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy. For Tomorrow’s rate decision meeting, the cash rate expected to remain at 0% as usual.

ECB's Interest Rate (%)

 

ECB Interest Rate Announcement History

Date                                      Previous              Consensus          Actual

10 Apr 2019                        0%                         0%

07 Mar 2019                       0%                         0%                        0%

24 Jan 2019                         0%                         0%                       0%

13 Dec 2018                        0%                         0%                       0%

25 Oct 2018                         0%                        0%                       0%

13 Sep 2018                        0%                        0%                        0%

26 Jul 2018                          0%                        0%                        0%

14 Jun 2018                         0%                        0%                        0%

26 Apr 2018                        0%                        0%                        0%

08 Mar 2018                       0%                        0%                        0%

 

 

Opportunities can be found in the statement

 

Inflation Rate (CPI)

The annual inflation rate eased to 1.4% in March 2019, matching January’s 9-month low, and slightly below from the market expectation. Even though the CPI is below the 2% target, the ECB aims to maintain the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Eurozone CPI (%)

 

Unemployment Rate

A better-than-expected jobless rate in Eurozone was released at 7.8% in February 2019, matching previous month’s 10-year low. The average wage growth stood at 2.3% from the last release, the ECB noted the labour cost pressures have strengthened and broadened amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets.

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (%)

 

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to the GDP, the Eurozone economy revised lower to 1.1%(YoY) in the Q4 2018. The uncertainty of Brexit continues affecting the Eurozone economy. Due to the slowdown of the economic growth, the ECB is likely to remain the rate unchanged in March’s meeting.

Eurozone GDP Annual Growth Rate (%)

 

Technical View

The Euro rallied from 1.1175 support level against the greenback at the beginning of April. In the 4 hours timeframe, indicators are regaining bullish momentum for both MACD and RSI. The price is currently consolidating in the range between 1.1175-1.1420. The MA system can be seen as the first barrier of the long order. On the other hand, the breakthrough of 1.1175 major support level would lead the price heading South furthermore.

EURUSD H4 Chart