U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (January 2019)

Posted on: 2019-01-03 (Day) By BCR Market Event

Will NFP Support The Rate Hike in 2019?


Date                      Time (GMT)        Previous              Consensus

04 Jan 2019         01:30 PM            155K                    177K


A worse-than-expected non-farm payroll in the United States was released by 155K in November 2018, following a downwardly revised 237K in October. However, the unemployment rate held steady at a 49-year low of 3.7% as expected. In the wages category, average hourly earnings (YoY) rose by 3.1% in November, same as in October and the quickest pace since April 2009. The ed is watching the wages component as it seeks to meet its inflation target. The Non-farm payrolls for December was scheduled to be released on January 4th. The market expectation increased to 177K compared to the last release.

(U.S. Non-farm Payrolls in Thousand)


The private businesses hired 179K employees in November 2018, a considerable growth from 225K in the prior month and slightly below the market’s expectations of 195K. This is the lowest reading within 3 months. The U.S. dollar sharply declined after the ADP payrolls releases. Within this week, the market is suggesting a slightly weakened ADP payrolls of 178K in December.

(U.S. ADP Employment Changes in thousand)


The greenback sharply lifted from 95.61 support level since the first day of 2019. The price is remaining in the 95.61-96.64 consolidating range. In the 4 hours timeframe, indicators are losing their bearish momentum for both MACD and RSI. However, the MA system is reopening the gate for short order. Focus on 96.64 barrier level for further movement.

(Dollar Index H4)